Cold comfort in Copenhagen

The Gods were laughing at us as the Climate Change talks finished up in Copenhagen. 

The temperature kept dropping and heavy snow fell not just over Denmark, but over northern Europe and the United States. That's a pic I took of the 'Hopenhagen' globe that hosted various events just before I boarded a night-train back home to Ireland.


Oxfam described the deal as a 'Cop-out', and as a 'triumph of spin over substance'. Sure there is a mention of the need to keep world's temperature increase to under 2 degrees, and a fund of $100 billion is mentioned, but that's a goal, not a commitment.


I'm beginning to think of the Climate Change issue as being similar to the layers of an onion. The outer layer consists of the need to convince people that the world is warming. Given the amount of conspiracy theorists out there, combined with some poor academic standards from the boffins at the University of East Anglia, a lot more work is necessary to argue the science in a clear level-headed way.


The second challenge is to adopt the two degree target. Some countries, particularly the more vulnerable ones are arguing that the limit should be lower - 1.5 degrees, and the debate over the limiting the average temperature increase isn't fully resolved.

That brings us on the 'parts per million' (ppm) argument. That's a measurement of how many ppm of carbon dioxide we wish to limit emissions at. Bill McKibben from 350.org was lobbying hard for a limit of 350ppm, and we're currently at 387ppm, so that would involve significant reductions. Charles David Keeling's pioneering work at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii showed how levels of carbon dioxide have risen rapidly over the last fifty years as illustrated in the Keeling Curve. 

Given that different countries have varying levels of emissions per capita the principle of 'contraction and convergence' encapsulates a sensible  approach to lowering global emissions. The more developed countries need to reduce their emissions and the developing countries should be allowed to increase emissions, ultimately resulting in the same level in all countries that would stabilise average global temperatures.

Ireland's emissions increased dramatically during the Tiger years to between eleven and seventeen tonnes per head of population depending on the source you use, highr than most other countries. That's why we set a target of reducing emissions by around 3% per year in the Programme for Government, and we're bring forward a Climate Change Bill to ensure that all branches of Government play their part in achieving this.

Government policies can help to limit emissions. We've changed the road tax regime so you pay €100 per year on a cleaner vehicle and €2000 for a high-polluter. We've also racked up the building regulations by 40% and intend to go further in a couple of years time. Home energy grants  help encourage people to upgrade their home and save money on heating and emissions. The new carbon levy at €15 per tonne will help motivate people to reduce emissions



At the heart of the onion is the way we live our lives. Government must provide carrots as well as sticks to help us change our ways. A lot of the side-events that I attended in Copenhagen were focussed on low-carbon jobs and I'm fairly confident that much of the new jobs in Ireland will come from solutions that help limit emissions in energy, agriculture, construction and transport.


The journey back from Copenhagen was a slow one. I seem to have been luck enough to have caught one of the few Eurostars that made it through from Brussels to London on Saturday, but all the trains were delayed. I met a  great guy from Nobber, Co. Meath on the night-boat on his way back from selling christmas trees in England. His last name was Gogarty and we joked about how between the sound-bites from James Gogarty a few years ago and Paul Gogarty in the last few weeks, he couldn't open his mouth without people expecting colourful language.


The Copenhagen process will continue, with another Conference of the Parties (COP16) scheduled for Mexico next December. Hopefully by then we'll have more commitments on the table from China, the United States and other pivitol countries so that meaningful action can take place to tackle the challenge of our changing climate.

Can Copenhagen save the world?

"I can promise you a first class ticket to Heaven, but don't use it straight away"

That was Archbishop Tutu speaking earlier this morning making a plea for action on behalf of the most vulnerable countries that are being affected by climate change. He and Mary Robinson bookended an emotional session where we heard from citizens of Uganda, Bangladesh, Peru and Tuvalu discussing the challenges facing their countries.

Of course countries like Bangladesh have always had natural disasters that claimed lives, but climate change can increase storm surges in the Bay of Bengal that can swamp low-lying areas and kill tens of thousands. Low-lying nations like Tuvalu face increasing salinisation of farmland from storms and rising ocean levels. The guy with the hat on in the picture is Cayetano Huanca, a farmer from Peru. His village is prone to water shortages and hunger due to melting glacier. Mary Robinson pointed out that "300,000 died from the effects of climate last year."

They were speaking at an event hosted by Oxfam billed as the world's first international climate hearing at COP15 the United Nations Climate Change Conference here in Copenhagen. Thankfully I missed the eight hour queues in the freezing cold yesterday and got in early enough to catch the Oxfam hosted meeting.

I went on from there to a discussion of family planning and climate change, and met delegates from Ethiopia, the Maldives, Croatia and New Zealand. There was broad agreement that access to reliable family planning methods was the key to lifting many out of poverty.

After lunch I went on to a discussion on the 'Transition to a Green Growth Economy'. The panel included the Danish Minister of Economics and Business Affairs Lene Espersen, Nils Smedegaard Andersen from Maersk and Thomas Friedman, NY Times columnist. Thomas is trying to persuade Americans that green isn't a 'sissy' topic, and he appears to be succeeding. He said "I don't want it to be all about taxation and regulation, I want to encourage the engineers and innovators who'll help us tackle all of this."

There's 192 countries represented here this week, and the negociation gradually shifts from civil servants and scientists to the political players in this second week of the conference. I suspect the Copenhagen Conference won't save the world, but it will help focus attention on the necessity and the opportunities for change. From my perspective its an opportunity to explore the key issues and hear about the approaches that other countries are applying to the challenge.

Green New Deal

Friday Afternoon. It's wet and cold in Poznan at the Climate Change Conference.

After a fairly turgid discussion of the need for emissions trading in the German car industry sector this morning, I headed over to listen to Al Gore. Two minutes in and I had to hightail it into a radio studio where I waited for a broadcasting slot for the last twenty minutes. Climate change was sidelined by the resignation of Niall Crowley from the Authority. I made the point on RTE Newst One that promoting and defending equality cannot be seen as a luxury to be marginalised when finances are constrained.

Meanwhile back in the Polish conference hall, it's Hamlet without the Prince. While parts of a Climate Change deal are being negotiated here, at the UNFCCC COP 14 talks, the real deal is being struck in Brussels at the Heads of State meeting. COP 14 is the fourteenth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and this is part of a process began in Bali a year ago that will hopefully conclude in Copenhagen in a year's time. We're also waiting to see how a new US President will tackle the issue.

There's some good news in the last half hour, a deal has been concluded in Brussels on a European package. French President Nicolas Sarkozy says the deal is historic, but I've just been handed a press release from Friends of the Earth International accusing industrialised countries of failing to commit to immediate binding emission reduction targets. On the positive side of things, Europe can take credit for being (roughly speaking) the first continent to set out a clear plan for tackling high emission.

John Gormley heads up the Irish delegation in Poland. Being a Leo, his weekly horoscope courtesy of Young Friends of the Earth Europe states that "This week the stars are in a perfect position for powerful decisions which can make a real difference for future generations. The Leo should more than ever use its leadership qualities , its creativity and passion to lead the world in the right direction." Well, that's just what the John and the rest of the Irish delegates appear to have been up to for the last fortnight. Pat Finnegan from Grian wants a 30% reduction by 2020, and the Irish branch of the Friends of the Earth want climate change to be enshrined in domestic legislation. All eyes will be on the US over the next few months to see what Barack Obama can deliver.

In Ireland the next wave of economic activity can and should be in green collar jobs. Green energy, green construction, green transport - all of these can create and foster employment in sectors that have experienced a downturn. I'm hoping that this will be part of the economic plans that are under preparation by Brian Cowen. A "Green New Deal"is the obvious way to kick-start a lagging economy, and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said as much yesterday.

I'm heading back out to the afternoon events, now. I'm hoping to attend a talk by the 350.org group on what is required to stabilise CO2 at 350 parts per million in the Earth's atmosphere. On the way over I'll pass a great collection of stands manned by NGOs, academics, business interests and institutions. Feasta is represented by Richard Douthwaite and others with material on 'cap and share' ; the International Atomic Agency has a glossy brochure of nuclear powers station surrounded by trees, the Heinrich Boll Foundation has leaflets on the right to development in a climate constrained world, and I picked up some good background information on the UK Hadley Centre (run by the Met Office) and the UK Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, named after our own John Tyndall from Co. Carlow.

As I head in to the meeting rooms Yvo de Boer of the UNFCC has just issued a statement saying that "The European Union's climate deal sends a clear message to the negociations in Poznan and onwards to Copenhagen that difficult roadblocks can be overcome and resolved", and European Commissioner Stavros Dimas has reiterated that the EU will commit to 30% cuts by 2020 "if other developed countries make comparable reductions under the Copenhagen agreement."

Concerns about leakage from these targets remain, but for the moment there's cautious optimism in Poznan.