Climate Change: Hope is back

Hope is back.

That's the main outcome from the Cancun Climate Change Conference here in Mexico.

Expectations couldn't have been lower. After last year’s failure at the climate talks in Copenhagen no-one expected a miracle at this year’s meeting under the UNFCCC. However early this morning the near-impossible happened. 191 countries signed off on texts relating to the Kyoto Protocol and Long-Term Co-operative Action. It doesn’t save the Planet, but it does save the process.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been around for over a decade at this stage, and there’s now renewed hope that next year’s meeting in South Africa will produce a legally binding international agreement. In essence it’s an incremental but significant step forward.

Last year many countries said no to a deal because the deal went too far. This year one country, Bolivia opted out of the consensus saying that the proposals weren’t strong enough. I agree with the essence of what Bolivia was saying – we need to go further and faster to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, but a failure to achieve something in Cancun would have been disastrous, as many countries might simply have walked away from the negotiations process. The texts refer to keeping global temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius, and to consider moving the goal to a more ambitious limit of less than 1.5 degrees. That may not sound like much, but these are global average temperatures, and may lead to more dramatic rises in certain countries, and in increased likelihood of more extreme weather events. Even minor climate changes can wipe out the crops and livelihood of some countries. A small rise in ocean levels could swamp much of the territory and many coastal and island States.

The European Union’s (EU) Climate Change Commissioner Connie Hedegaard from Denmark along with the current Flemish Chair of the EU Environment Council Joke Schauvliege led the co-ordination meetings for the Union that took place at crucial points in the negotiations. All countries addressed the floor and I was privileged to speak for Ireland. Even within the European camp there are divergences of opinion, but Europe is taking a lead in proposing 20% reductions in emissions by 2020, and a 30% target if other countries are willing to move.

There’s a key fault-line between developed and developing countries. Put simply, the less developed countries rightly point out that the richer countries caused the bulk of the problem, and the poorer countries are suffering the consequences. For this reason a Green Climate Fund is being set up to provide assistance to the more vulnerable countries. Framing the institutional architecture of this fund is quite a challenge. The World Bank will serve as trustee to the fund for the first three years, and the composition of the Fund’s committee is carefully balanced across the continents, and ensures that small island states are represented. The Fund will assist countries in adaptation to climate change and will have access significant funding over the next decade. However Irish delegate Pat Finnegan from the environmental Non-Governmental Organisation Grian points out that increasing capacity building in the countries that receive this funding is a crucial issue that hasn’t been resolved.

In the short term, Ireland along with other European countries is providing fast-start financing for the most vulnerable developing countries, and we’ve announced a commitment of €23 million as Ireland’s contribution for 2010. Some might argue that such money shouldn’t go abroad at a time of economic austerity at home, but the funding will help some of the most impoverished nations to adapt to a crisis for which we share responsibility.

Tensions ran high in the hall last night, and there were standing ovations for the Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa who chaired the conference for her role in both leading and listening as part of the delicate diplomacy that unfolded. It was a successful conference for girl-power as well. Former Irish President Mary Robinson addressed Climate Justice side-event earlier in the week, and I have no doubt that the listening skills of European Commissioner Hedegaard, Minister Schauvliege and others contributed to the progress that was made.

Late on Friday evening Mohamed Aslam, the environment minister of low-lying Maldives addressed the floor: “I speak for a country whose survival depends on the decisions we take. No one can doubt my interest in this matter. The text is the best we can do right now and there is room to improve things next year."

I couldn’t have put it better myself.

Can Copenhagen save the world?

"I can promise you a first class ticket to Heaven, but don't use it straight away"

That was Archbishop Tutu speaking earlier this morning making a plea for action on behalf of the most vulnerable countries that are being affected by climate change. He and Mary Robinson bookended an emotional session where we heard from citizens of Uganda, Bangladesh, Peru and Tuvalu discussing the challenges facing their countries.

Of course countries like Bangladesh have always had natural disasters that claimed lives, but climate change can increase storm surges in the Bay of Bengal that can swamp low-lying areas and kill tens of thousands. Low-lying nations like Tuvalu face increasing salinisation of farmland from storms and rising ocean levels. The guy with the hat on in the picture is Cayetano Huanca, a farmer from Peru. His village is prone to water shortages and hunger due to melting glacier. Mary Robinson pointed out that "300,000 died from the effects of climate last year."

They were speaking at an event hosted by Oxfam billed as the world's first international climate hearing at COP15 the United Nations Climate Change Conference here in Copenhagen. Thankfully I missed the eight hour queues in the freezing cold yesterday and got in early enough to catch the Oxfam hosted meeting.

I went on from there to a discussion of family planning and climate change, and met delegates from Ethiopia, the Maldives, Croatia and New Zealand. There was broad agreement that access to reliable family planning methods was the key to lifting many out of poverty.

After lunch I went on to a discussion on the 'Transition to a Green Growth Economy'. The panel included the Danish Minister of Economics and Business Affairs Lene Espersen, Nils Smedegaard Andersen from Maersk and Thomas Friedman, NY Times columnist. Thomas is trying to persuade Americans that green isn't a 'sissy' topic, and he appears to be succeeding. He said "I don't want it to be all about taxation and regulation, I want to encourage the engineers and innovators who'll help us tackle all of this."

There's 192 countries represented here this week, and the negociation gradually shifts from civil servants and scientists to the political players in this second week of the conference. I suspect the Copenhagen Conference won't save the world, but it will help focus attention on the necessity and the opportunities for change. From my perspective its an opportunity to explore the key issues and hear about the approaches that other countries are applying to the challenge.