Fractured World Order: Where Does Europe Stand?

On 19 July 2025 I spoke at the MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Donegal on the theme of “Fractured World Order: Where Does Europe Stand?”. On the panel with me were Dr. Eoin Drea, Senior Researcher in the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies; Bill Emmott, Former Editor of The Economist and Chair of IISS, and Lisa O’Carroll, Senior Correspondent with the Guardian. The discussion was hosted by Shona Murray of Euronews. Here’s what I had to say.

A geological perspective

The Geological Survey of Ireland notes, in its report on “The Geological Heritage of County Donegal: An audit of County Geological and Geomorphological Sites in north Donegal” states that: Ireland has joined in the effort to extend the International Appalachian Trail (IAT) to all parts of the once-continuous, pre-Atlantic Appalachian-Caledonian mountain belt. The existing IAT stretches from the northern terminus of the Appalachian Trail at Mount Katahdin in the US state of Maine, through eastern Canada to the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland. The fractures are real, but the bedrock is the same. The geology is complex, but so too is the politics. We may be divided but nonetheless there are ties that bind.

Meanwhile in the European Union

Closer to home, the fractures within Europe are not as deep as some would make out, but there are significant regional differences from east to west, and north to south. Six months ago, I became co-chair of the European Green Party, and my role has been to help the many Green parties around Europe to work together. I have had the privilege in this short time to travel and meet with citizens in the Western Balkans, Hungary, Greenland and places in between.  I can see that Europeans are drawn together by trust in democracy, rule of law, science (more specifically climate science), shared values and concerns. 

They differ in their views on the conflicts in both the Middle East and Ukraine. Those in Middle Europe still struggle with the long shadow of the Holocaust and find it more difficult than we do to respond to the scale of human suffering in Gaza. Many in Western Europe find it difficult to comprehend the visceral fear of Russia and Putin that those living in, and adjoining the Eastern Bloc live with every day. Nonetheless, I believe that despite the wobble of Brexit, most Europeans believe in the importance of European institutions, and European action to tackle the challenges that we face. 

A Europe of Unity

Half a decade ago in 2019 and 2020, the imperative of climate action brought significant unity to the European Union. Climate action is the EU’s unique selling point, and a Just Transition is critical to our future.  As the European Union’s External Action Service points out, Climate change and environmental degradation are existential threats to Europe and the world. In 2019 the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched a European Green Deal, which commenced with a European Climate Law, but which also involved some twenty separate pieces of legislation that tackled various aspects of the climate and biodiversity crises. From nature protection to energy efficiency to buildings a suite of laws was passed that set out to achieve a 55% reduction in greenhouse emissions in the period 1990 to 2030. That target is still on track. Even though the new European Commission now champions a Clean Industrial Deal the efforts to decarbonise the European Union are set to continue, though with rebranding, and a nod to populist politics. Ten years on from the Paris Agreement we are not aligned with the ambitious decarbonisation pathway that is required, but the direction of travel is clear.

 As transatlantic challenge

Co-operation across borders is key. In my time as a member of the European Parliament I sat on the Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States and under the capable chairmanship of Radosław Sikorski we stressed our common concerns. Sikorski had been a war correspondent in Afghanistan, so was well prepared for dealing with the politics of a fractured world, and his wife, author Anne Applebaum is also an insightful commentator on the politics of divisions.  He is now Poland’s Foreign Minister, a challenging role. Mind you, in the period prior to Trump's re-election we were urged to enjoy our time, as the warm transatlantic relationship might not last. How true this was. Sadly the new US administration, by winding up USAID, their main development aid vehicle, and by policies that do U-turns based on social media posts  has lost the room in international diplomacy.  However, the problems that we face cannot be solved by an isolationist position as deValera learnt almost one hundred years ago and the main challenges that we face: of security, of climate, of disinformation, of migration and inequality require co-operation across borders. 

Joining the Club

There are those who suggest that the EU is fracturing and failing, but I disagree. The list of accession states is long. There is a queue of countries that seek to be part of the European Club, and it seems likely that several of them: Iceland, Montenegro and perhaps other countries in the Western Balkans may achieve membership by the end of the decade. I was in Montenegro earlier this month. Our European Greens sister party URA (United Reform Action) led by Dritan Abazovic see the EU as championing democracy, rule of law and anti-corruption measures. And more importantly, as the EEC  did for us fifty years ago, today’s Europe assists in tackling inequality between countries by investing in the necessary social, economic and physical infrastructure that is needed.

Future finance

This week saw the publication of the draft EU budget for the seven-year period 2028-2035, the Multi-annual Financial Framework. Two trillion Euro is a lot of money, but not that large in the greater scheme of things, particularly when you divide this sum by seven years and 450 million people you get €635 per citizen per year, but it is significant.   It includes €865 billion National and Regional Partnership Plans including CAP and linked to reforms and respect for the rule of law;€410 billion Competitiveness Fund for clean and smart technology; a €200 billion Global Europe Fund for humanitarian aid and support for reforms and investments in countries seeking accession to the EU; a €150 billion “Catalyst Europe” loan scheme for energy infrastructure, strategic technologies, defence, and a €100 billion ‘Ukraine Reserve’ for reconstruction. To summarise: the budget is similar to the last/current budget, and includes substantial funding for climate, defence, enlargement and Ukraine.

 

Security, defence and resilience

On the issue of defence: “Safer together: A path towards a fully prepared Union” is the report written last year by the former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö. In the preface he states that “security is the foundation of everything we hold dear.” and the “broad open space for people to exercise their freedoms” is being “exploited by malicious actors, as we constantly see in the diverse hybrid operations conducted against us”. He goes on to say that Europe is being targeted by those looking for weaknesses who take advantage of our political divisions, any lack of social cohesion and harmful economic dependencies, and are weaponizing anything they can against us. In response we must be well prepared to ensure we do not become an easy target. 

Climate Action

He references the increased risk from extreme weather events which is forcing Europeans to ask not only how climate change will affect future generations, but also what we need to prepare for today. Extreme floods and forest fires have caused high levels of casualties and the highest military call-outs in the EU in recent years.  He says that these deeply disruptive events are neither transitory nor isolated. They are driven and connected by underlying fault lines, long-term shifts and root causes that point to a prolonged period of high risk and deep uncertainty for the Union. We must invest in climate adaptation and mitigation.

Reforming our Defence Forces

Our own Defence Forces are not fit for purpose. Back in 2021 in my submission on the public consultation on the Commission on the Defence Forces report I said that the Irish economy’s dependence on digital infrastructure has increased dramatically in the last decade. From server farms to undersea cables, we are exposed to new threats and challenges. There are concerns over attempts that may have occurred involving the hacking of such infrastructure such as undersea cables by foreign forces, and the unannounced incursion of defence aircraft and submarines into Irish waters and airspace. These concerns must inform our defence capabilities. We need greater urgency in staffing up to cybersecurity threats and to reforming the Defence Forces management structures so that they are fit for purpose to the threats we now face. I am pleased that Ireland is now part of two PESCO projects, Network of Logistic Hubs in Europe and Support to Operations (also known as NetLogHubs), and Critical Seabed Infrastructure Protection (called CSIP). 

Safer Together

Niinistö, the former Finnish President said in his report on Security for the EU says we all must assist in building and maintaining security and references the information sources that we trust as being an element of protecting our security. He also discusses energy security and resilience and moving away from dependence on fossil fuels. So, security is not just about tanks and guns, it is about investing in social cohesion, it is about news sources we trust, and it is about decarbonisation. We must invest in housing, in information and news, and in climate action. This will protect our common home and frustrate those seeking to fracture our democracy. This applies regardless of whether those actors are approaching Europe from across the Atlantic or from the Eastern flank. 

Once again Europe is threatened by war on European soil, and by differences in tackling conflict elsewhere. However, despite these threats the belief in shared values persists, and will help ensure that the European Union is united and enlarges in the coming years. Mending our fractured world demands investment in social justice, in development aid and in a just transition.  Trans-national cooperation is imperative to achieving this.

References

Deprez, Martine. ‘Progress Report on the implementation of the Joint Communication - A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus'. European Commission, 2025. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/enhancing-climate-security-and-defence_en

Geological Survey of Ireland. ‘The Geological Heritage of Donegal’. Government of Ireland, 2019. https://www.gsi.ie/en-ie/publications/Pages/The-Geological-Heritage-of-Donegal.aspx

Niinisto, Sauli. ‘Safer Together Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness’. European Commission, 2024.  https://commission.europa.eu/document/5bb2881f-9e29-42f2-8b77-8739b19d047c_en

Óglaigh na hÉireann. ‘Report of the Commission on Defence Forces’. Government of Ireland, 2022. https://www.military.ie/en/public-information/publications/report-of-the-commission-on-defence-forces/

Decarbonising Buildings: the road ahead

 

On Friday 7th October 2022 I spoke at the Irish Building and Design Awards at the Intercontinental Hotel in Ballsbridge, Dublin. Thanks to Louis Gunnigan, my former colleague from TU Dublin for the invitation! I explained what the European Union is doing about tackling climate change, and I spoke specifically about the challenges that we face in the building sector. Here’s what I said:

I want to talk to you about a revolution. Do not panic, it is a gentle revolution, and you are already part of it. In fact, we are living through it. Called the European Green Deal, it is the ‘big idea' behind the European Union’s actions over recent years. Initiated by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, it underpins the work of the European Commission, the European Council, and the European Parliament. Some see it as a growth strategy, some see it as a means for a Just Transition, and others see it as a mechanism that can deliver the climate action that science demands over the coming years. It changes the way we produce and use energy; the way we travel, the food we grow and eat, and lastly, and importantly the buildings that we construct and renovate.

Agriculture, Energy, Transport, Construction: all these sectors are adapting to meet the demands of our changing climate. Of course, we cannot just clap our hands and say, ‘Make it so!” We need new laws, and revisions of the existing ones to decarbonise Europe, and currently there are about twenty draft laws on the table. The Energy Efficiency Directive, the Renewable Energy Directive, and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive are all being updated to meet our new ambition. They are part of the so-called ‘Fit for 55’ package, aiming to reduce emissions by 55% between 1990 and 2030, no easy task.

Since the European Green Deal launched, we have seen Putin’s murderous invasion of Ukraine, and our energy supplies from Russia are reducing. However, we want to be completely independent from Russian fossil fuels before 2030, and that is the overarching aim of the EU’s ‘RePowerEU plan’. A central element is installing a massive number of solar panels and heat pumps in the coming years.
I am the rapporteur or chief negotiator on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, and it will play a central role in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, rolling out renewable technologies to homes across Europe, and achieving our climate goals.   

Research tells us that the buildings that house the 450 million people living in the EU consume 40% of the energy and are responsible for 36% of the greenhouse gas emissions. This impact is enormous, and that is why we need to decarbonise our new buildings, and the existing building stock to reach near zero emissions by 2050. 80%/90% of the buildings we use today will still be with us in 2050, so renovating the existing stock will be crucial. Retrofitting existing buildings to an A rating is quite the challenge over the next 25/30 years. The most sustainable building is the one that already exists. And there will be opt-outs for Protected Structures. We have no intention to put a rooflight over the Pantheon or apply external insulation.

With the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, I am pushing for very ambitious targets. However, I must collaborate with colleagues from different political groups, and I suspect my ambition will be tempered by their cautiousness. The final draft of this legislation should be approved by the middle of next year. For now, allow me to give you an overview of what we want to achieve from the outset.

First, we want to have one-stop shops in every country that can provide free impartial advice for energy upgrades to households and businesses, and we want to prioritise a neighbourhood approach so that communities can work together to reduce their bills and achieve savings with economies of scale.

Second, we have ambitious plans on electrification. We want to phase out the installation of heating units that use gas or oil, and electrify everything our heating needs, and yes, we need to reinforce the grid to make this happen. We want EV charging installations in all new buildings from 2025.

Third, a key element in the new law will be Minimum Energy Performance Standards for new buildings and upgrades, so that we are firmly on a glide-path to an A-rating for most buildings in the coming years. Of course, these are in place in Ireland for new builds, but many other countries do not have these. Of course, social safeguards will be required to protect tenants who may be at risk of renoviction.

Fourth, we have pushed for all new buildings to be Zero Emission Buildings by 2025 for residential, < 60 kW/m2 pa, but using renewable sources either generated on site; from renewable energy communities; or from district heating systems. We want existing buildings to achieve a C rating by 2030, though this target may be pushed back in the political discussions that we are having. The key moment to undertake works is at the trigger point when a building is sold or leased. We of course differentiate between existing and new buildings, public and private, housing, and other uses and have different targets accordingly. We know there are bottlenecks and shortages in terms of skills, and materials, but these will reduce over time. We also know it will create jobs, perhaps half a million by the end of the decade and these are professional, skilled, and unskilled jobs that will support local and regional economies across the EU.

Finally, we need the money. The cost of these works will run to trillions of euro. But from the conversations I am having with financial institutions they are saying they want to lend and will do so once the legislation is enacted. And the rates of return will increase as we rely less on expensive fossil fuels, and the returns will be predictable. Even the European Investment Bank is rebranding itself as the Climate Bank, and it is already lending to local authorities here in Dublin to fund deep renovations. 

Friends, colleagues, the aim of the EPBD is to decarbonise all buildings in the EU by 2050, and this is no mean feat. We will need ambition, money, skills, and supplies to get us there. As members of this industry - whether you are a construction worker, an architect, a supplier of renewable technologies, or a building owner - we all have a role to play in this gentle revolution. I know many of you are already meeting or exceeding these targets in your work, and that is fantastic to see. It is great to have you with us on this, and I wish you the very best with the work that lies ahead.

Uploaded 20 October 2022